- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?<1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?47¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard?28¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay?13¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Gonzalo?9¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Hanna?5¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Isaias?<1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Josephine?1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Kyle?1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Leah?1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Marco?<1¢
- Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Nana?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains suppressed by a strengthening El Niño, which has sustained elevated vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air across much of the basin, limiting intensification despite above-average sea-surface temperatures. Only three tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have formed through late August—well below the 1991–2020 average—with zero hurricanes recorded and accumulated cyclone energy at just 3.1 (88% below normal). The next system, expected to develop from an eastern Atlantic tropical wave into Tropical Storm Dolly, is the primary near-term focus; models show modest organization potential but continued shear that could keep it below hurricane thresholds. Subsequent names like Edouard face similar environmental headwinds, though any relaxation in shear or a stronger wave could allow rapid intensification. NOAA and Colorado State University maintain below-normal seasonal outlooks (7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes), underscoring the uncertainty in timing of the first hurricane.