- Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat?4¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat?96¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Kim Schrier’s dominant showing in the August 4, 2026 top-two primary, where she secured over 53 percent of the vote while Republican candidates split the remainder, has reinforced trader consensus on a Democratic hold in Washington’s 8th congressional district. The seat’s D+3 Partisan Voter Index, consistent “Solid” or “Likely Democratic” ratings from multiple forecasters, and Schrier’s incumbency since 2018 contribute to the elevated implied probability for the Democratic Party. Suburban and exurban areas east of Seattle with a modest Democratic tilt present structural headwinds for Republican challengers. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, sharp national political realignment, or unusually low Democratic turnout could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.