WA-03 House Election Winner
- Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?85¢
- Will the Republican Party win the WA-03 House seat?12¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez holds a strong edge in Washington's 3rd congressional district heading into the November general election. Her centrist record and history of bipartisan votes have helped maintain support in a district with an R+2 Cook PVI that backed Donald Trump in 2024 yet reelected her narrowly. The August 4 top-two primary advanced Perez and Republican challenger John Braun, the state Senate minority leader, with no major disruptions to their paths. Recent polling shows a tight race, though trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns the Democratic nominee an implied probability above 80 percent, consistent with incumbency advantages, fundraising patterns, and historical retention rates for sitting members in similar battlegrounds. Key factors that could alter positioning include turnout among swing voters and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics.