Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
- Will David Leslie win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Shirley Saucerman win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?4¢
- Will Richard Grayson win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Richard Benedict Mayers win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Earl D. "Skip" Southworth win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Dustin Darden win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Carol Hafner win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Gerald L. Heikes win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?95¢
- Will Dan J. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
- Will Fred C. Grauberger win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the August 18, 2026, Alaska U.S. Senate top-four primary because she is the sole major Democratic candidate in a nonpartisan field that includes the Republican incumbent and more than a dozen lesser-known challengers. Her substantial fundraising edge, with over $6.9 million raised since April compared with roughly $2 million for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, has supported broader voter outreach ahead of the ranked-choice primary. Polling and early August surveys show her positioned to capture first place, as Republican votes split among multiple candidates including a name-similar challenger. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unusually high turnout for one of the minor Republican contenders or late shifts in ranked-choice preferences that prevent any single candidate from securing the top spot.