- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by August 31, 2026?62¢
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 15, 2026?83¢
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 30, 2026?92¢
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?95¢
- Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by September 8, 2026?73¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Lincoln will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The USS Abraham Lincoln has remained in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations supporting maritime security and contingency responses amid U.S. military actions related to Iran since its November 2025 departure from San Diego. Its extended deployment—now exceeding 260 days at sea with limited port calls—has prompted Navy plans to relieve it with the USS George Washington, amid internal concerns over crew fatigue and logistics. Recent visits by CENTCOM leadership, including public statements wishing the crew “fair winds and following seas on the way home,” alongside ongoing flight operations and ordnance expenditures, indicate rotation timing hinges on operational handoff readiness and regional force posture adjustments. Scheduled carrier movements and any escalation or de-escalation in the Arabian Sea or Strait of Hormuz remain the key variables for departure from the CENTCOM area of responsibility.