- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?87¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Recent U.S.-China summits and the Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement have established a U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods each, alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, Boeing aircraft, and critical minerals access. Traders price the high likelihood of an agreement by year-end on these institutionalized talks, the existing tariff truce suspension through November 2026, and upcoming leader engagements including a planned September Xi visit to Washington, APEC, and G20. Ongoing Section 301 processes have stayed within the 20 percent cap referenced in bilateral readouts, with no major new escalations reported in recent weeks. This framework of managed reciprocity and multiple diplomatic checkpoints underpins the current market consensus on timely resolution.