UEFA Nations League · Round 5England — Croatia
England1-0-1 · home
Croatia1-0-1 · away- Will England win on 2026-11-12?77¢77%
- Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?14¢14%
- Will Croatia win on 2026-11-12?9¢9%
England’s commanding 7-0 victory over Croatia in the reverse Nations League fixture in October has heavily shaped trader consensus for the return match at Wembley. Under Thomas Tuchel, the Three Lions have posted three straight group wins and boast the competition’s best goal difference, while Croatia have lost three consecutive matches and conceded 14 goals across four outings, including their heaviest-ever defeat. Home advantage, Kane’s continued presence, and Croatia’s ongoing defensive frailties and absences reinforce the 77.5% implied probability for an England win. The 14.5% draw and 8.5% Croatia prices reflect the visitors’ limited recent success against stronger sides and the need for England merely to avoid defeat to advance.
Rules
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between England and Croatia, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If England wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "No".