- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?<1¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?4¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?24¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?22¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?3¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?4¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?8¢
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?10¢
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Recent UK CPI data and Bank of England projections anchor trader positioning in the U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 market. July 2026 CPI rose to 2.9% year-over-year from 2.6% in June, with the BoE’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting a peak near 3.2% in 2026 Q4 as higher global energy prices pass through utility bills and supply chains. Consensus forecasts from the Treasury and economists cluster around 3.3% for Q4 2026, while the central bank expects inflation to ease toward its 2% target by late 2027 amid limited evidence of broad second-round wage or price effects and a Bank Rate held at 3.75%. The tight contest between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.5–3.9% bins reflects uncertainty over energy price persistence, import cost pass-through, and any late-year moderation in services inflation.