- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat?96¢
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-30 House seat?3¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Texas's 30th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the state, anchored in majority-Black and Hispanic areas of southern Dallas with a Cook PVI of D+25. The open-seat contest follows redistricting and the decision by incumbent Jasmine Crockett to run for Senate, yet Democratic nominee Frederick Haynes III secured the nomination with over 72% in the March 2026 primary. Republican nominee Everett Jackson advanced through a May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where recent statewide Democratic candidates have routinely exceeded 70% support. All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent turnout patterns among core voting blocs and the absence of competitive polling or notable shifts in the past year. While a national Republican wave or unforeseen candidate-specific event could theoretically narrow margins, the district's partisan baseline makes such outcomes highly improbable by November 2026.