TX-19 House Election Winner
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-19 House seat?5¢
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-19 House seat?96¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
The open TX-19 seat, vacated by retiring Republican incumbent Jodey Arrington, sits in a strongly Republican West Texas district that favored GOP presidential candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Tom Sell secured the Republican nomination after defeating Abraham Enriquez in the May 2026 primary runoff, positioning him against Democratic nominee Kyle Rable. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's partisan voting index and limited Democratic infrastructure. Trader consensus at 95% Republican probability aligns with this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments since the primaries. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal affecting the Republican nominee or an unusually large national Democratic wave, though such shifts remain low-probability based on current evidence.