- Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?89¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-02 House seat?10¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Republican nominee Steve Toth holds a strong advantage in Texas’s 2nd congressional district for the November 3, 2026 general election. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, and nonpartisan analysts rate it Solid or Safe Republican. Toth defeated incumbent Dan Crenshaw in the March 2026 GOP primary after redistricting added more conservative voters in Montgomery County, and Democrat Shaun Finnie advanced unopposed. This structural Republican edge, combined with the district’s consistent support for GOP candidates in prior cycles, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. No major developments since the primary have altered the competitive landscape.