Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
- Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by December 31, 2026?11¢
- Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by June 30, 2027?36¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur: - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner; - Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or - the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components. Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met. Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program hinges on resolving the 2019 exclusion triggered by its S-400 purchase from Russia, which violated CAATSA sanctions and raised NATO interoperability concerns. As of mid-2026, bilateral talks have advanced under the Trump administration, with President Trump publicly signaling willingness to lift sanctions and consider readmission during meetings with President Erdoğan. Proposed pathways include transferring the S-400 system to the UAE, rendering components inoperable, or other workarounds. Turkish officials describe the dispute as closer to resolution, while the US State Department has stated that statutory requirements remain unmet. Congressional opposition, including from Greek and Israeli interests, adds procedural hurdles, with any formal rejoining likely requiring legislative action and verification of compliance.