- Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?11¢
- Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?<1¢
- Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?<1¢
- Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?84¢
- Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?<1¢
- Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?<1¢
- Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?<1¢
- Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?2¢
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
Olivia Chow holds a commanding position in the 2026 Toronto mayoral race as the incumbent seeking her first full term, with recent polls from Liaison Strategies and Forum Research placing her support in the mid-to-high 40s percent range among decided voters—well ahead of city councillor Brad Bradford (around 40 percent) and late entrant Chris Alexander (around 10 percent). The race has tightened since earlier surveys, driven by Alexander’s July registration and Bradford’s consolidation of opposition support, yet Chow maintains a consistent lead without major disruptions ahead of the October 26 vote. Nominations close August 21, and the absence of late-breaking developments or strong challengers from the prior field (including John Tory’s decision not to run) reinforces trader assessments of her frontrunner status. Historical patterns favoring incumbents in municipal contests further align with the current pricing, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on her path to victory.