- Will Alexandre Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?45¢
- Will Eduardo Gomes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?<1¢
- Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?13¢
- Will Nilton Santos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?7¢
- Will Apóstolo Flavio Braga win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?2¢
- Will Eli Borges win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?6¢
- Will Fábio Ribeiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?<1¢
- Will Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?2¢
- Will Osvany Luz win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?2¢
- Will Paulo Mourão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?12¢
- Will Professor Osvaldo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?2¢
- Will Ronaldo Dimas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling in Tocantins positions Eduardo Gomes (PL) as the clear frontrunner for one of the two Senate seats, with support near 31 percent in July and early August surveys. This leaves Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) positioned as the leading contender for second place at roughly 25 percent, ahead of Gaguim (UNIÃO) and a fragmented field that includes Paulo Mourão, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, and others. With voters selecting two candidates and no dominant opposition figure emerging, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over which challenger consolidates enough support to secure the second slot before the October election. Late campaign alliances, regional turnout shifts, or additional polling could separate the pack.