- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?22¢
On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if an increase in the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date of the tariffs (as set by legislation or executive action) must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Canadian imports would equal a 60% tariff). Item specific exceptions will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). For the purpose of this market, an increase in the general tariff rate is defined as a rate greater than the rate in effect at the time of this market's creation. A general tariff that includes item specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general tariff on all imports into the United States from Canada is in effect which is greater than the policy in effect at the time of this market's creation. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...? President Trump’s July 20, 2026, Section 338 proclamations imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports—including wine, dairy, cement, hockey equipment, and certain vehicles—after citing provincial bans on U.S. alcohol and other barriers to American exports. The measures were scheduled for August 19 but paused three days for final negotiations; talks collapsed late on August 21 when Canada rejected last-minute U.S. terms, triggering the duties at midnight on August 22. Ottawa immediately suspended talks and pledged matching retaliation. These targeted duties apply regardless of USMCA preferences and add to earlier Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber. Market resolution hinges on official confirmation that the new rates took effect on the stated start date without further suspension.