Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?97¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?1¢
- Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?1¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Social Democrats maintain a commanding position in trader consensus for the largest share of seats in Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election due to consistent polling leads of roughly 30–33 percent, well ahead of Sweden Democrats and Moderates. Recent surveys from firms such as Novus, Demoskop, and SCB show the Red-Green opposition bloc holding a clear advantage over the incumbent Tidö government, reflecting voter shifts since the 2022 result. The Social Democrats’ status as the largest single party remains stable across multiple samples, with limited movement in the final month before voting. Late developments that could narrow this margin include unexpected turnout variations, bloc realignments, or major campaign events, though current data indicate few realistic paths for another party to overtake them by election day.