Sweden Parliamentary Election: KD Vote Share?
- Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes?19¢
- Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?45¢
- Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?25¢
- Will Christian Democrats (KD) win at least 9% of all valid votes?9¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna (KD) support in the 6–7.5% range across major surveys, including a Novus reading at 7.5% in mid-August after earlier figures near 6%. As the smallest party in the Tidö coalition government alongside the Moderates and Liberals, KD has maintained steady but limited backing, reflecting its niche Christian democratic profile and limited voter base beyond core supporters. Minor recent gains appear tied to visibility for leader Ebba Busch in her Energy Minister role amid ongoing debates over nuclear policy and defense spending, though the broader center-right bloc trails the opposition Red-Greens in aggregate intention. With the September 13 election weeks away, this positioning keeps the 5–7% band as the clearest consensus range among traders.