Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?18¢
- Will the Left Party (V) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?31¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?26¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?18¢
- Will the Liberals (L) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?2¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fifth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fifth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Swedish polls ahead of the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election show the Social Democrats leading, followed closely by the Sweden Democrats and Moderates, with the next tier—Christian Democrats, Centre Party, Greens, and Left Party—clustered between roughly 6% and 7.5%. This tight grouping among mid-sized parties sustains uncertainty over fifth-place ordering, as small swings in voter preference or turnout can reorder them. The governing bloc's narrowing deficit to the opposition and the Liberals' persistent sub-4% readings add volatility, while bloc competition and campaign positioning influence preference flows among undecided voters. Trader consensus prices these four parties highest for fifth place, reflecting their comparable polling levels and limited recent differentiation.