- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?7¢
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?39¢
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?56¢
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 41m and 44m?4¢
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be at least 44m?<1¢
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Strong holdover performance from its record-breaking debut and sustained audience demand position the $38–41 million range as the market favorite for Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s fourth weekend. Released July 31, the film opened to a franchise-best $360 million domestically and has shown exceptional legs, including a $70 million third weekend that ranks among the highest ever. With domestic totals already exceeding $800 million and no major new competition arriving mid-August, traders see a modest drop from prior frames as the most likely outcome. The 56% implied probability on 38–41 million reflects this momentum, while the 39% on 35–38 million accounts for typical post-blockbuster softening and back-to-school timing. Wider ranges remain long shots given the film’s proven retention.