- Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?22¢22%
- Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027?90¢90%
SpaceX has advanced LC-39A at Kennedy Space Center to acceptance testing, completing deluge system checks, umbilical actuation, and tower outfitting, positioning the historic pad for Starship-Super Heavy operations. The return of the transport barge to Cape Canaveral on October 14 signals potential early hardware delivery, while SpaceX has confirmed at least one more Starbase test flight before any Florida attempt, tying the debut to Flight 16 or later. FAA supplemental environmental review for SLC-37 concluded public scoping in mid-October, supporting plans for high launch cadence, though no vehicles have arrived in Florida and unconfirmed planning targets like mid-December remain fluid amid typical program slips. Next catalysts include Flight 15 timing and first ship or booster transport.
Rules
If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.