- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?<1¢
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital. A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital. Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness saw its assets collapse from a peak near $45 billion to roughly $10 billion in late July 2026 after leveraged long bets on semiconductor and infrastructure names such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave soured amid a broader tech sell-off, while short software positions also moved against it. High leverage reportedly reaching 400% triggered margin calls that forced an emergency fire sale of public equity holdings to Citadel at a discount, allowing the fund to avoid immediate full liquidation. No official wind-down announcement has followed the bailout, and the remaining portfolio, including its private Anthropic stake, continues to operate at a much smaller scale. Traders are watching for further performance updates or regulatory filings in the coming months that could clarify whether the fund will shrink further or attempt a recovery.