- Will Dr. Helton win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Emanuel Cacho win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Fábio win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?70¢
- Will Ricardo Marques win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Taty Cristina de Jesus win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Valmir de Francisquinho win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?9¢
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds the leading position in trader pricing for the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial contest, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling averages and a broad coalition that includes parties such as União Brasil, PP, PSB, and Solidariedade. Official candidate registration closed on August 15, with the first round scheduled for October 4 and a possible runoff on October 25; Mitidieri’s declared assets and established name recognition among the state’s 1.74 million eligible voters provide structural advantages. Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), the main opposition figure and a 2022 repeat candidate, trails in most surveys but remains the clearest alternative in hypothetical second-round scenarios. Minor candidates including Ricardo Marques (PL), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Dr. Helton Monteiro (PSOL), and Taty Cristina (DC) register minimal support, consistent with their low market shares. Recent surveys from mid-August show Mitidieri ahead by double digits in stimulated scenarios, aligning with the current implied probabilities.