Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
- Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?6¢
- Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?60¢
- Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?1¢
- Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?13¢
- Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?10¢
- Will Baidu be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?3¢
- Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?8¢
- Will Xiaomi be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?3¢
- Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?3¢
- Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?3¢
- Will Nvidia be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?3¢
- Will DeepSeek be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?5¢
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Google holds the highest implied probability for second place on arena.ai’s Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October due to DeepMind’s established research strengths in multi-step reasoning, proof generation, and competition-level benchmarks like AIME and MATH variants. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen series, Z.ai’s GLM models, and Moonshot’s Kimi variants have narrowed gaps through targeted fine-tuning on synthetic competition data and large-scale math corpora, creating a clustered field that explains the broad 50% pricing across many named outcomes. Western frontrunners like OpenAI and Anthropic trail in this specific slice, as recent releases emphasize general capabilities and agentic features over pure mathematical specialization. With roughly ten weeks remaining, any new model drops, fine-tunes, or leaderboard updates from Google, DeepSeek, or ByteDance could reorder mid-pack positions before resolution.