- Screwworm National Emergency declared by December 31?14¢14%
Recent confirmation of the first U.S. wildlife case of New World screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) in a Texas elk, alongside 65 total animal detections in Texas and New Mexico with 12 still active as of late October 2026, has heightened trader focus on potential federal emergency declarations. USDA-APHIS data show the outbreak began with a June 2026 calf case and has prompted infested zones, expanded fly trapping, and wildlife surveillance, though officials classify it as contained rather than a full outbreak. CDC assessments rate human risk as very low to low, with historical eradication from the U.S. in the 1960s via sterile insect techniques providing context for current control efforts. Key upcoming factors include ongoing case reporting, border port reopenings, and any new detections that could trigger extraordinary emergency authority.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.