- Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?100¢
- Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?0¢
- Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?0¢
- Will Mark Bekkering win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?0¢
- Will Chris Rees win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?0¢
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Fatima Shaban secured the Ontario NDP nomination in April 2026 for the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election triggered by Doly Begum’s February resignation to contest the federal riding as a Liberal. Shaban’s repeated candidacies in prior federal votes in the riding, combined with the NDP’s hold on the seat since 2018 and emphasis on affordability and housing issues, positioned her as the clear frontrunner ahead of the September 3 vote against Liberal Ahsanul Hafiz and Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun. Official results confirmed her win with roughly 40 percent of the vote. Trader consensus at 100 percent reflects the completed count and lack of disputes. Late certification challenges or recounts remain the only realistic factors that could still shift the outcome before final resolution.