- Will Fatima Shaban win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?38¢
- Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?<1¢
- Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?52¢
- Will Mark Bekkering win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?<1¢
- Will Chris Rees win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?<1¢
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3 features a tight contest between Liberal nominee Ahsanul Hafiz and NDP candidate Fatima Shaban in a riding the NDP held since 2018 until Doly Begum’s February resignation to run federally. Hafiz secured the Liberal nomination after a contested race against a sitting MP, while Shaban, a community organizer who has contested the riding federally multiple times, benefits from established party infrastructure and local advocacy on housing. Recent federal results showed strong Liberal support in the diverse Toronto riding, yet provincial dynamics remain competitive given the NDP’s prior base and limited time for voter shifts. Minor-party candidates, including PC’s Noor Tarun, trail significantly. With advance polls opening soon, trader pricing reflects uncertainty over turnout and any late campaign momentum.