- Will ADI win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?37¢
- Will MLSTP win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?58¢
- Will Basta win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?2¢
- Will PCD win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?2¢
- Will MDFM win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?2¢
- Will MCI-PS/PUN win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?2¢
- Will Nossa Terra win the most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?2¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
São Tomé and Príncipe’s two dominant parties, MLSTP-PSD and ADI, continue to shape the contest for the September 27 parliamentary vote amid lingering effects from the July presidential election. Incumbent Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round win, backed by an MLSTP-PSD alliance after he ran as an independent, has reinforced that party’s momentum and contributed to its current lead in trader pricing. ADI remains competitive but faces internal factional splits that have fragmented its support base. With both parties historically alternating control of the National Assembly and smaller groupings polling in single digits, the race stays close because neither has yet secured a decisive edge in key voter coalitions or turnout patterns. Upcoming campaign events, candidate announcements, or further shifts in cross-party alignments could widen the gap before election day.