- Will ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?64¢
- Will MLSTP win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?37¢
- Will Basta win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will MCI-PS/PUN win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will MDFM win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will PCD win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will Nossa Terra win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the second greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary election on 27 September will determine the 55-seat National Assembly composition, with the ADI party holding a 63.5% implied probability of finishing second according to current trader consensus. The MLSTP–PSD alliance, which backed independent President Carlos Vila Nova’s first-round re-election victory in July with roughly 56% of the vote, sits at 37.5% for second place after its coalition performance shifted momentum away from the ADI. Internal ADI divisions, including the 2025 dismissal of former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada and subsequent leadership disputes, have contributed to the party’s weaker positioning ahead of the vote. Numerous smaller parties and coalitions register at 50% or lower, reflecting limited polling data and high uncertainty over vote fragmentation in the multiparty system. The outcome will hinge on turnout patterns and coalition dynamics in the final weeks before balloting.