- Will Ednelson Cesaretti win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Geraldo Rufino win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marcio Alves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?32¢
- Will Petter Maahs win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Weller Gonçalves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will William Teixeira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will André do Prado win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?11¢
- Will Dra. Eliana Ferreira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?42¢
- Will Maíra de Souza win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?<1¢
- Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?13¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Voters in São Paulo will select two senators on October 4, 2026, creating a competitive environment for second place amid a crowded field that includes Guilherme Derrite (PP), Marina Silva (Rede), Ricardo Salles (NOVO), André do Prado (PL), and Simone Tebet (PSB). Recent polls show Marina Silva and Tebet often leading overall vote intention, yet trader pricing reflects Derrite’s stronger positioning for the runner-up slot, driven by his association with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s security-focused base and right-wing consolidation efforts. The closeness stems from undecided voters, potential late alliances or withdrawals, and regional turnout dynamics that could shift margins between center-left and center-right contenders. Developments such as new polling releases, candidate debates, or shifts in federal alliances within the next six weeks could widen separation among these frontrunners.