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The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo Senate race for first place on October 4 remains closely contested, with Guilherme Derrite holding the highest implied probability at 42.5% amid recent polling that shows him statistically tied or narrowly trailing Simone Tebet and Marina Silva. Early surveys from Paraná Pesquisas place Tebet and Silva near 30% each, while Derrite benefits from PP party infrastructure and federal deputy visibility in a field where two seats are open after Mara Gabrilli shifted to the state assembly and Alexandre Giordano opted out. Party negotiations, voter turnout in key regions, and potential late alliances could shift momentum before official campaigning intensifies, keeping the outcome sensitive to small changes in support among center-right and environmentalist blocs.