- Will Carol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?3¢
- Will Carol de Toni win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?40¢
- Will Décio Lima win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?2¢
- Will Esperidião Amin win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?14¢
- Will Afrânio Boppré win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?3¢
- Will Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?<1¢
- Will Carlos Bolsonaro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?35¢
- Will Jeferson da Rocha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?4¢
- Will Joaninha de Oliveira win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?<1¢
- Will Lunelli win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?4¢
- Will Marcos Dorval win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marlene Soccas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling in Santa Catarina shows Congresswoman Carol de Toni and Carlos Bolsonaro, both aligned with the PL and backed by prominent Bolsonaro family figures, holding the top positions in the race for the state's two Senate seats, with incumbent Esperidião Amin trailing further back. Their near-even standing in surveys has kept implied probabilities for second place tightly contested, reflecting split voter preferences within the same party coalition and limited separation in early name recognition or regional support. Primary factors sustaining the balance include coordinated party strategies to secure both vacancies, undecided voters in the 20% range, and the absence of decisive late-cycle shifts such as major endorsements or turnout data. Additional polling releases, primary alignments, or campaign momentum through September could widen gaps before the October 4 election.