- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 12%?59¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 12% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling averages place Die Linke at 13% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6, 2026 Landtag election, producing the modest trader edge for finishing above 12%. Multiple surveys from late July through mid-August (INSA, Infratest dimap, pollytix) show the party holding steady in the 12–14% range, typically at or just above the 13% mark after modest gains from its 11% result in the prior election. This positioning reflects limited volatility in the final campaign phase, with the party’s regional organization and candidate slate (led by Eva von Angern) maintaining a consistent base amid broader voter shifts toward the AfD (41–43%) and CDU (22–24%). Other smaller parties cluster near or below the 5% threshold, which can influence seat math but has not materially altered Linke’s projected share. The market therefore reflects the current polling consensus that the party is more likely than not to clear 12%, while acknowledging the narrow margin and potential for last-minute turnout or preference shifts to determine the exact outcome.