- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?39¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if Grüne wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if Grüne wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polling averages place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen at 4–5% for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election, just at or below the 5% threshold for parliamentary entry under Germany's mixed-member proportional system. August surveys from INSA and Infratest dimap show the party at 4–5%, down from 5.9% in 2021, with limited late-campaign momentum amid AfD dominance near 41–43% and vote fragmentation among smaller parties including BSW and the FDP. Traders assign 55.5% implied probability to an under outcome, reflecting the absence of measurable gains in the final weeks and the structural challenge smaller parties face when support splits across multiple competitors.