- Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 42%?56¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 42% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Recent polls from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Pollytix place the AfD between 41% and 43% ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, with aggregates near 42.1%. The party has held this range through July and August while the CDU has fallen to 22–24%. Voter priorities on migration and health services continue to favor the AfD, whose support has more than doubled since its 20.8% result in 2021. Minor parties remain near or below the 5% threshold, though this primarily affects seat distribution rather than the AfD’s raw vote share. With the election two weeks away and no major late shifts reported, trader consensus on the over-42% side reflects the stability of these polling levels.