- Will Acir Gurgacz win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?2¢
- Will Aires Mota win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Dr. Fernando Máximo win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?41¢
- Will Engenheiro Thulio win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luciana Oliveira win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luis Fernando win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Mariana Carvalho win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Neidinha win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?<1¢
- Will Sílvia Cristina win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?37¢
- Will Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?8¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Dr. Fernando Máximo leads trader pricing for first place in Rondônia’s October 2026 Senate race at 40.5%, ahead of Sílvia Cristina at 30.5%, reflecting his stronger polling numbers in recent surveys and PL’s organizational edge in a state with pronounced bolsonarista support. Multiple candidates, including Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid and Mariana Carvalho, remain in single digits as voters select two senators, fragmenting the field and leaving the second slot highly competitive. Party conventions in August formalized major alliances, while Confúcio Moura’s withdrawal narrowed options without yet consolidating support behind any single rival. The tight spread for top spot stems from Máximo’s consistent first-vote advantage offset by Sílvia Cristina’s gains in second-preference scenarios and the absence of a dominant frontrunner across all demographic and regional blocs. Late-campaign events, turnout patterns among rural and urban voters, and any shifts in PL-PP coordination could still widen the gap before election day.