- Will Frederico Antunes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?2¢
- Will Luciano do MLB win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?17¢
- Will Marcel Van Hattem win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?40¢
- Will Milton Cardoso win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Pimenta win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?23¢
- Will Regis Ethur win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Renato Jaguarão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Ric Jones win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Rigotto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?14¢
- Will Sanderson win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
- Will Tania Peres win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The fragmented field for Rio Grande do Sul’s two Senate seats features a technical tie among leading contenders including Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL), according to recent Genial/Quaest surveys showing top candidates clustered between 6-12% with substantial undecided voters. No incumbents are seeking reelection, amplifying uncertainty ahead of the October 4 first-round vote and keeping the contest for second place fluid. Trader pricing on Polymarket reflects this balance, with Van Hattem holding the highest implied probability for the runner-up spot while others trail more distantly. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases could shift positioning among the main contenders.