- Will André Monteiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Benedita da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?17¢
- Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?18¢
- Will Carlos Portinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?18¢
- Will Helio Secco win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?3¢
- Will Luciano Mattos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Eugenio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marcelo Crivella win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?9¢
- Will Marcos Dias win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Michelly Xavier win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Monica Benicio win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?1¢
- Will Ó Clemente win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?2¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The latest Datafolha survey, released August 21 after the official campaign launch, shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading Senate voting intentions in Rio de Janeiro at 15 percent while six candidates sit within the three-point margin of error for second place. Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) register 8 percent each, followed closely by Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL) at 6 percent, with Waguinho (Republicanos) at 3 percent. High shares of blank/null votes (23 percent) and undecided respondents (12 percent) keep the second-vacancy contest fragmented across ideological lines. Traders price the outcome tightly because no single contender has consolidated support among center-right or opposition voters, and further separation will likely depend on upcoming polling trends, candidate endorsements, and turnout dynamics before the October election.