- Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?17¢
- Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?70¢
- Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?<1¢
- Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?16¢
- Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?<1¢
- Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
The Parti Québécois (PQ) leads recent provincial polling averages at roughly 30%, ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 25-27% and the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 19-20%, with the Parti Conservateur du Québec (PCQ) at 13-15% and Québec solidaire (QS) near 9-11%. This positioning stems primarily from the PQ’s sustained advantage among francophone voters (typically 34-37% in breakdowns), who determine outcomes in most ridings outside Montreal. The CAQ has continued its multi-year decline following François Legault’s January 2026 resignation, with new leader Christine Fréchette failing to restore support despite pre-campaign efforts. The PLQ has stabilized modestly under Charles Milliard but trails in key francophone segments. Projections from aggregators such as Qc125 and 338Canada currently assign the PQ the highest probability of securing the most seats or a majority, driven by the first-past-the-post dynamics favoring its regional strength. The election is set for October 5, 2026, with the writ expected in late August. High undecided rates (around 49% in recent Léger data) and the five-party fragmentation introduce volatility, though consistent polling trends since spring have kept the PQ as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Minor recent shifts, such as PCQ gains in the Quebec City region, have not altered the overall hierarchy.