- Will Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in August?15¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 500-525mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 525-550mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 550-600mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 600-650mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?83¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have between 650-700mm of precipitation in August?<1¢
- Will Hong Kong have 700mm or more of precipitation in August?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Below-average rainfall accumulation through late August has driven the strong market consensus toward totals under 425 mm. Official Hong Kong Observatory data show monthly rainfall tracking around 350 mm as of August 30, well below the 1991-2020 climatological normal of roughly 450 mm and the typical 385 mm August average. This reflects a relatively quiet tropical cyclone season with limited monsoon trough activity and fewer organized rain events after mid-month, as confirmed by daily totals dominated by lighter showers rather than heavy downpours. With the month nearly complete and minimal additional precipitation expected in the final hours, the <425 mm outcome holds an 88.5% implied probability, consistent with verified observational trends rather than model projections.