- Will PPI YoY be 4.2% or less in August?<1¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.3% in August?<1¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.4% in August?1¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.5% in August?<1¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.6% in August?4¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.7% in August?6¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.8% in August?4¢
- Will PPI YoY be 4.9% in August?11¢
- Will PPI YoY be 5.0% in August?7¢
- Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?56¢
This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Recent July 2026 PPI data, which printed at 4.7% YoY versus 4.9% consensus and 5.5% prior, anchors trader positioning ahead of the September 10 BLS release for August. Market-implied odds assign the highest probability (55.5%) to a 5.1%+ reading, reflecting expectations that energy and goods price rebounds could lift the year-over-year rate despite the recent softening. Core PPI held near 4.2%, while volatile components like gasoline drove the July decline, leaving scope for monthly volatility to push August higher amid persistent services inflation and elevated commodity pressures tied to geopolitical factors. The Fed's hold at the 3.50-3.75% funds rate range, with some officials favoring tighter policy, underscores ongoing focus on upstream price trends as a leading indicator for broader inflation and monetary policy expectations.