- Will Alexandre Mariano win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Antônio Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Antônio José Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Ciro Nogueira win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?32¢
- Will Cloves José win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Danniel Rocha win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Dionisio Carvalho win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Francinaldo Leão win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Jardenya Bezerra win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Jorge Lopes win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?1¢
- Will Julio Cesar win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?6¢
- Will Marcelo Castro win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?52¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marcelo Castro holds a narrow edge in trader pricing for first place in Piauí’s October 2026 Senate contest, reflecting his consistent polling leads in multiple June surveys and lower rejection levels compared with rivals. Ciro Nogueira trails in the market despite a strong August GP1 poll showing him ahead on valid votes, as traders appear to discount his prospects due to elevated rejection rates that have historically capped growth in the state’s two-seat race. Júlio César and a long list of minor candidates register minimal implied probabilities, underscoring the concentrated contest among established names. High undecided shares and the majoritarian system for the top two finishers keep first-place separation dependent on late-campaign momentum, turnout among core bases, and any further shifts in voter evaluations of the leading trio.