- Will Perplexity’s market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day?31¢31%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day?3¢3%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?3¢3%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?3¢3%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day?6¢6%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?4¢4%
- Will Perplexity’s market cap be greater than $100B at market close on IPO day?3¢3%
- Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?46¢46%
CEO Aravind Srinivas has repeatedly committed to a 2028 IPO as the earliest target, unchanged by recent AI listings from peers like OpenAI and Anthropic. This stance, reaffirmed in June 2026 CNBC comments and October 2026 coverage, underpins the 66% market-implied probability of no IPO before then, as executives prioritize building sustainable revenue and operations over rushing to public markets. Perplexity’s last priced rounds valued the company at roughly $20–23 billion in late 2025 and early 2026, with secondary marks near $19–20 billion as of October 2026. Annualized revenue reached about $750 million by August 2026—up sharply from under $250 million earlier in the year—driven by the February 2026 Perplexity Computer agent launch and usage-based pricing. This supports moderate IPO valuation brackets but keeps higher ranges (50B+) at low single-digit odds given current multiples around 27x revenue and typical AI listing precedents. Ongoing Nvidia investment talks at a potential $30 billion-plus valuation remain unclosed and would still occur privately. Traders appear to view the explicit 2028 timeline, combined with measured growth and regulatory or market risks for AI firms, as the dominant factors shaping these probabilities.
Rules
This market will resolve based on Perplexity's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Perplexity IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Perplexity’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.