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- Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?62¢
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- Will Eduardo da Fonte win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?<1¢
- Will Humberto Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?11¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the clearest edge in the race for first place in Pernambuco’s two-seat Senate contest, with recent Datafolha polling from mid-August placing her at 15% of total intentions, narrowly ahead of Humberto Costa (PT) at 14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 11% in a technical four-way tie within the margin of error. Arraes benefits from strong name recognition after her 2022 gubernatorial run and alignment with the João Campos (PSB) state ticket, while Costa seeks a third term on the same slate. Mendonça and da Fonte, backed by the Raquel Lyra (PSD) group, trail in most surveys. Campaign activity has intensified since the August 15 registration deadline, with joint appearances and committee launches across the state underscoring the competitive positioning reflected in current trader pricing.