- Will Alexandre Curi win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?19¢
- Will Cristina Reis Graeml win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?11¢
- Will Deltan Dallagnol win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?28¢
- Will Dr. Rosinha win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?2¢
- Will Filipe Barros win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?35¢
- Will Gleisi win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?2¢
- Will Joaquim do MLB win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?2¢
- Will Karen Guerreiro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marcelo Marcelino win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling from institutes including Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows a fragmented field for Paraná’s two 2026 Senate seats, with technical ties among Deltan Dallagnol, Filipe Barros, Alexandre Curi, Gleisi Hoffmann, and Cristina Graeml for second place behind Álvaro Dias in several scenarios. High undecided and null votes, combined with recent party conventions that formalized alliances such as PL with Novo, sustain the tight trader consensus reflected in current prices. Separation could emerge from further polling closer to the October 4 vote, shifts in second-preference flows, or campaign developments that consolidate support among center-right or opposition blocs.