- Will Joaquim do MLB win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?3¢
- Will Karen Guerreiro win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?3¢
- Will Marcelo Marcelino win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?4¢
- Will Alexandre Curi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?36¢
- Will Cristina Reis Graeml win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?4¢
- Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?18¢
- Will Dr. Rosinha win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?2¢
- Will Filipe Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?9¢
- Will Gleisi win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?3¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent polling and candidate movements have kept the Paraná Senate race for first place highly competitive, with trader consensus reflecting a fragmented field after Álvaro Dias withdrew in early August. Alexandre Curi holds the highest implied probability at 35.5% amid his established state legislative profile and Republicanos backing, while Deltan Dallagnol trails at 19.5% despite Novo support and prior anti-corruption visibility; several others including Filipe Barros and Gleisi Hoffmann register in single digits. High undecided voter shares, eligibility questions around certain candidacies, and the two-seat electoral structure sustain tight positioning across the top contenders. Upcoming surveys, convention outcomes, and any late shifts in coalitions could widen gaps before October voting.