Paraná Governor Election Winner
- Will Alexandre Curi win the Governor of Paraná election?5¢
- Will Enio Verri win the Governor of Paraná election?3¢
- Will Luiz França win the Governor of Paraná election?1¢
- Will Rafael Greca win the Governor of Paraná election?1¢
- Will Requião Filho win the Governor of Paraná election?2¢
- Will Guto Silva win the Governor of Paraná election?1¢
- Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?87¢
- Will Beto Richa win the Governor of Paraná election?2¢
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Sergio Moro’s recent formal nomination by the Liberal Party (PL) as its gubernatorial candidate, coupled with consistent polling leads of 39-48 percent in first-round and runoff scenarios, underpins the strong trader consensus around his position in the October 2026 Paraná election. The term-limited incumbent’s PSD ally, Sandro Alex, trails in surveys, while other declared contenders such as Requião Filho (PDT), Rafael Greca (MDB), and lower-polling figures face fragmented support and limited coalition momentum. Moro’s shift to the PL secured bolsonarista backing and restructured alliances ahead of the first-round vote and potential runoff, narrowing viable paths for challengers and shaping the current market pricing.