- Will Breno Guimarães win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?1¢
- Will Celso Sabino win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?10¢
- Will Chicão win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?2¢
- Will Conti win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?4¢
- Will Delegado Éder Mauro win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?33¢
- Will Edlaine Rodrigues win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?2¢
- Will Fernanda Lopes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?4¢
- Will Gizelle Freitas win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?3¢
- Will Helder win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?3¢
- Will Willem da Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?2¢
- Will Zequinha Marinho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?51¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent AtlasIntel polling shows a fragmented field for Pará's two Senate seats up on October 4, with Helder Barbalho (MDB) leading first-round intentions while Éder Mauro (PL), Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), and Chicão (União) cluster tightly behind. This distribution sustains elevated trader probabilities for multiple candidates to finish second, as vote splitting among centrist and opposition names keeps margins narrow. Incumbency dynamics, party alliances, and regional turnout patterns in the Amazon state further limit any single challenger's separation. Late-campaign events such as debates, endorsements, or shifts in the gubernatorial race could consolidate support and move second-place odds.