- Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?31¢
- Will Fjord win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?13¢
- Will Digger win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?10¢
- Will Obsession win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?12¢
- Will Club Kid win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?3¢
- Will Fatherland win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?2¢
- Will Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢
- Will The Drama win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢
- Will Josephine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢
- Will Forgotten Island win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?1¢
- Will The Black Ball win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?4¢
- Will The Invite win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?5¢
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wild Horse Nine leads early trader sentiment for the 2027 Oscars Best Original Screenplay race at 31% implied probability, fueled by Martin McDonagh’s proven track record with darkly comedic, character-driven originals and its high-profile cast including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich. The film’s September Venice premiere and November release position it as the first major contender to screen, giving it momentum ahead of fall festivals. Closely matched challengers like Fjord, Digger, and The Debut sit in the 8–13% range, reflecting strong director pedigrees from Cristian Mungiu, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, and Jesse Eisenberg but lacking equivalent pre-release visibility. With no guild or critics’ awards yet decided, the market remains fluid, hinging on critical reception, campaign narratives, and how these 2026 originals resonate with Academy voters historically drawn to distinctive voices over star power alone.