This market will resolve according to the number of times NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (@NYCMayor), posts on X between August 11, 12:00 PM ET and August 18, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Zohran Mamdani’s established X posting cadence as NYC mayor drives the strong market positioning of the 20-39 outcome. Since taking office in January 2026, the @NYCMayor account has maintained a steady rhythm of official announcements, community updates, and responses to city events, typically generating a moderate weekly volume without sustained spikes. Recent activity in the resolution window reflects this pattern, including multiple statements on August 14–15 addressing a synagogue assault, neighborhood safety initiatives, cultural celebrations, and departmental condolences. No major breaking developments or crises have emerged to prompt unusually high output, keeping probabilities aligned with observed norms. Traders appear to view this baseline activity level as the most probable range through August 18, with higher brackets reflecting only low-probability escalation scenarios.