- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-09 House seat?95¢
- Will the Republican Party win the NY-09 House seat?5¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Yvette Clarke, the Democratic incumbent representing New York's 9th congressional district in Brooklyn since 2007, secured her party's nomination in the June 2026 primary with a decisive margin over challengers. The district's strong Democratic voter base, consistent turnout patterns, and Clarke's established record have produced a safe-D rating from multiple forecasters and driven prediction market prices to 95.5% for Democrats versus 4.5% for Republicans. Limited Republican recruitment and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising data reinforce trader consensus. A late-breaking scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually large national Republican midterm surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural district demographics make such shifts improbable before November 2026.