Next Grok Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?>99¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?<1¢
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying SpaceXAI model must have “Grok” in its displayed model name and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, grok-4.6-high, grok-4.7-thinking, grok-5, or similar would qualify. Models whose displayed name does not include “Grok,” or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as grok-4.1-expert, grok-4.3-heavy, grok-4.5-GA will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
xAI released Grok 4.6 on August 12, 2026, emphasizing long-running agents, multi-step reasoning, and tool use in coding and interactive tasks, with immediate availability through its API, Cursor, and Grok Build. The model was added the same day to Arena's Text Arena and Code Arena leaderboards, where Grok-4.6-high variants quickly posted competitive Elo scores near the top tier alongside Claude and GPT-5.6 entries. This follows xAI's established pattern of rapid third-party evaluation on platforms like LMArena, allowing real-user preference voting to shape perceived capabilities in text-to-text domains. Traders should monitor ongoing arena voting trends and any follow-up announcements on expanded access or benchmark updates, as these directly influence resolution criteria for debut timing and visibility.